Goldman Sachs says AI
A marquee Wall Street assessment punctures AI’s domestic-growth narrative, exposing how a trillion-dollar investment wave may be boosting foreign GDP while leaving US output largely unchanged.
Sources
Summary
Goldman Sachs analysts said AI’s impact on the US economy was “basically zero” in 2025 and did not meaningfully contribute to the officially recorded 2.2 percent GDP growth. The assessment reframes the AI boom as a capital-allocation story whose gains may be accruing outside US economic accounts, particularly through Asia-centered hardware supply chains. The practical consequence is heightened risk of mispriced expectations and policy decisions being made around an economic “growth engine” that is not showing up in measured domestic output.
Reality Check
The threat here is economic capture by narrative: when markets and policymakers treat hype as growth, we risk steering public strategy and private capital around benefits that are not appearing in measured US output. Nothing described is likely criminal; it reflects lawful analyst opinion and corporate capital spending, not fraud, coercion, or bribery under federal statutes like 18 U.S.C. § 1343 or § 1348. The democratic vulnerability is governance by storyline—our industrial policy and regulatory choices can be distorted when politically convenient claims about “AI-driven growth” substitute for measurable domestic results.
Detail
<p>Goldman Sachs analysts, including Joseph Briggs, assessed that artificial intelligence had a “basically zero” impact on the US economy in 2025. They argued that large language models, chatbots, and related AI technologies did not meaningfully contribute to the 2.2 percent GDP growth recorded last year.</p><p>The assessment contrasts with optimistic projections about AI’s macroeconomic contribution and aligns with similar caution expressed by analysts at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase. The reporting notes that large technology companies including Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have announced major data-center expansion plans that will require substantial computing hardware purchases over the coming years.</p><p>Analysts estimate that roughly three-quarters of projected Big Tech capital expenditure could contribute directly to GDP growth in Taiwan and other Asian technology manufacturing hubs. The context also cites ongoing US efforts—across successive administrations—to reduce dependence on semiconductors and components manufactured in Asia, alongside competing political claims about whether AI investments are supporting US growth.</p>