James Talarico Beating Both Ken Paxton And John Cornyn In Texas Senate Election, Poll Shows
A major Senate race is being shaped around a presidential demand that the non-endorsed candidate “drop out,” shifting nomination power from voters toward personal political leverage.
Mar 10, 2026
Sources
Summary
A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Texas State Rep. James Talarico narrowly leading Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn in hypothetical U.S. Senate matchups. The Republican contest is framed around a potential presidential endorsement and an explicit demand that the non-endorsed candidate exit the race. The practical consequence is a Senate nomination process increasingly conditioned on personal political leverage rather than party voters’ independent choice.
Reality Check
When a national figure pressures a candidate to exit a race as a condition of support, we normalize nominations decided by leverage rather than by voters’ independent choice. This precedent trains parties and the public to accept gatekeeping by personal influence instead of open competition. Over time, it weakens accountability by making elected officials more dependent on power brokers than on the electorate.
Detail
<p>Public Policy Polling surveyed a hypothetical Texas U.S. Senate general election and reported Texas State Rep. James Talarico leading Attorney General Ken Paxton 47% to 45% and leading Sen. John Cornyn 44% to 43%, with more respondents undecided in the Cornyn matchup. The poll was conducted March 4–5 with a sample described as 30% Democrat, 41% Republican, and 30% independent.</p><p>A separate Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) survey of 781 likely Republican primary voters, conducted March 7–8 with a +/- 3.9% margin of error, reported Paxton leading Cornyn 49% to 41%, with the remainder undecided. The TPOR survey also modeled endorsement effects: if President Donald Trump endorsed Cornyn, Paxton would still lead 44% to 43%; if Trump endorsed Paxton, Paxton would lead 58% to 32%.</p><p>Trump said he would endorse “pretty soon” and urged the candidate he does not back to drop out. Paxton said he would remain in the race, prompting Trump to warn that stance could affect his decision.</p>