The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) responded to the Congressional Budget Officeâs updated 10-year outlook by warning that federal borrowing is running at roughly double the 50-year historical average and is not sustainable under current law.
The CBO baseline projects debt held by the public rising from nearly $31 trillion to $56 trillion over the next decade, reaching 120% of GDP by 2036 and surpassing the prior postâWorld War II record of 106% of GDP by fiscal year 2030. Annual deficits are projected to total $24.4 trillion over the decade, exceeding $3 trillion by 2036 and averaging 6.1% of GDP.
The outlook incorporates the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, tariffs, and immigration changes. CRFB cites CBO estimates that OBBBA adds $4.7 trillion to the debt through 2035, while tariffs subtract $3 trillion from deficits, for a net worsening of borrowing projections of roughly $1.4 trillion from 2026â2035 versus last yearâs estimates.
Interest payments are projected to rise from $970 billion in 2025 to $2.1 trillion by 2036. Trust funds are projected to deplete reserves in coming years, including the Highway Trust Fund in 2028 and the Social Security retirement trust fund in 2032, triggering benefit reductions under current law.