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Buried.News

The stories buried under the noise

Primary focus

Trump fires Kristi Noem as Homeland Security Secretary

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Supermicro’s co-founder was just accused of smuggling $2.5 billion in GPUs to China | Fortune

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CNN Data Guru Predicts Major Disaster for Trump After Dems Flip Mar-a-Lago

A Democrat flipping the Florida district that includes Mar-a-Lago is real news, but using it to “predict” a national midterm wave oversells what one low-turnout special election can prove.

Elections

Mar 25, 2026

Sources

https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnn-data-guru-harry-enten-predicts-major-disaster-for-donald-trump-after-dems-flip-mar-a-lago/?via=mobile&source=Reddit

Summary

Democrat Emily Gregory narrowly won a Florida state House special election in District 87, which includes Mar-a-Lago, after the seat opened due to a resignation. The source frames the result as strong evidence of an impending Democratic wave in November and pairs it with broader claims about special elections and voting-by-mail hypocrisy. The story matters because election narratives can harden into “inevitability” talk that misleads readers about what’s actually predictive versus what’s just suggestive.

Reality Check

The flip in Florida HD-87 is a genuine signal that the district is more competitive than its recent presidential/top-of-ticket results suggested—but it is still a single, low-turnout special election in a uniquely local context, not a deterministic “midterm forecast.” Special elections can correlate with national mood, yet they are noisy and heavily shaped by candidate quality, turnout, and district-specific dynamics; the most honest takeaway is “possible warning sign,” not “major disaster is inevitable.” ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/democrat-emily-gregory-florida-legislative-seat-maralago-899016be8e87645f7776fa0cca94e1bc))

Media

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Detail

Florida State House District 87 (including parts of West Palm Beach and Mar-a-Lago) flipped to Democrats when Emily Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples by roughly a 51–49 margin. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/democrat-emily-gregory-florida-legislative-seat-maralago-899016be8e87645f7776fa0cca94e1bc)) The seat became vacant after the prior representative left office; Republicans still retain a supermajority in Florida’s legislature. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/democrat-emily-gregory-florida-legislative-seat-maralago-899016be8e87645f7776fa0cca94e1bc)) CNN analyst Harry Enten argued the margin shift from the 2024 presidential baseline is consistent with other special-election movement toward Democrats and could foreshadow House midterm outcomes. ([transcripts.cnn.com](https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/ebo/date/2026-03-24/segment/01)) A separate Florida special election flipped a state Senate seat (District 14/Hillsborough-area) with Democrat Brian Nathan defeating Republican Josie Tomkow by a very small margin. ([wmnf.org](https://www.wmnf.org/democrat-brian-nathan-wins-special-election-florida-senate-seat-hillsborough-news/)) The source also highlights that Trump voted by mail while supporting tighter vote-by-mail rules and backing the SAVE America Act’s proof-of-citizenship/voting requirements debate. ([usatoday.com](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2026/03/25/did-the-save-america-act-pass-senate-vote-today-save-act-status-full-text-summary-id-requirements/89312753007/)) The article asserts Democrats have flipped 29 state legislative seats since Trump’s election while Republicans have flipped none; this specific tally is not substantiated with a dataset or link in the provided text.