Researchers published findings in Social Psychological and Personality Science examining when conspiracy beliefs predict support for political violence, using January 6, 2021 as the focal case. Study 1 surveyed 372 U.S. citizens who voted for Donald Trump in 2020, measuring general conspiracy mentality, belief that the 2020 election was rigged to favor Democrats, past-year political participation (e.g., rally attendance, contacting politicians), and justification of Capitol-attack violence (including whether it was acceptable for rioters to arm themselves). Analyses controlled for age, gender, education, and political orientation; both political participation and conspiracy beliefs predicted justification, with the highest justification among those high on both.
Study 2 recruited 751 additional Trump 2020 voters. Participants reported baseline participation, then were randomly assigned to read a fabricated blog post either supporting or denying widespread election fraud, completed a comprehension check, and then reported current fraud beliefs and views on the Capitol attack. Exposure slightly shifted fraud beliefs, and an interaction showed the participationâviolence-justification link was stronger among those exposed to the pro-fraud text.